What this Christmas is likely to look like
A few pieces of research are worth having in mind.
Spend up, visits flat. VoucherCodes.co.uk’s Shopping for Christmas report forecasts £13.3bn spent across pubs, bars and restaurants this December, up 3%. But 44% of consumers say they plan to visit fewer venues because of higher prices. Pubs are forecast to buck that slightly, with visitors up 1.7%.
Fewer, bigger occasions. NIQ’s research on Christmas 2025 found 78% of people visited a licensed venue over the festive period, but only 24% went weekly, down four points. Work party attendance slipped from 24% to 21%.
Christmas Eve is the big one for locals. The Oxford Partnership found that on Christmas Eve 2025, suburban local pubs sold almost three and a half times their usual December Wednesday draught volumes, up from 101 to 344 pints per pub. Rural locals were up 194% and city-centre locals only 41%. Suburban food pubs rose 244%, while city-centre food pubs fell 13%. This year Christmas Eve is a Thursday.
The message is that December is less a month-long boom than a handful of very big days surrounded by ordinary, or even quiet, ones.
1. Build the forecast from last year’s till, not your memory
Pull last December’s sales by day and by hour from your EPOS. Mark the peaks: the big party nights, the last Friday before Christmas, Christmas Eve and Boxing Day. Then adjust for what’s different this year: the day of the week Christmas Eve falls on, the bookings you already hold, and any local events.
2. Set a wage target for each day, not for the month
Decide what share of each day’s forecast sales you can afford to spend on wages, then build the rota to fit. For example, if you’re aiming for 25% and a quiet Tuesday is forecast at £1,200, you’ve got about £300 of wages to play with, including NI and holiday cost. That’s an illustration, not a benchmark. Use your own target.
The quiet days are where December margin is usually lost. Staff them lean, and have named people agreed in advance who can be called in if trade picks up.
3. Lock the rota early and fairly
- Holiday. Bank holidays don’t have to be given as paid leave, and an employer can include them in the 5.6 weeks’ statutory entitlement. Whatever your policy, write it down and apply it consistently.
- Sickness. Since April, Statutory Sick Pay has been payable from the first full day off sick, with no waiting days. Build a little cover into the budget for winter bugs.
- Notice. The new rights to reasonable notice of shifts and pay for short-notice cancellations aren’t in force yet. The government says timings will be updated after consultation. Giving staff their Christmas shifts early is still good practice, and it’s how you keep good people through January.
4. Take deposits and pre-orders for groups
For party bookings and Christmas Day, ask for pre-orders and a deposit, with clear written terms on cancellation and final numbers. Pre-orders let you buy and prep to the plate, not to a guess.
5. Stock to the peaks, then run it down
- Order to the forecast. Order draught for the big days and plan your cellar space and line cleaning around deliveries. Your suppliers will have their own Christmas cut-offs, so check them now.
- A tighter festive menu means less waste on the quiet days.
- Run stock down after Christmas. January is no time to be sitting on spare kegs and short-dated food.
- Don’t forget low and no. KAM’s research found more than a third of pub and bar visits are now alcohol-free. Designated drivers on Christmas Eve are customers too.
6. Give people a reason to leave the sofa
NIQ found that 10% of people who didn’t go out last Christmas said it was because they could recreate the experience at home, up from 4% the year before. Its suggestion is festive drinks and dishes that can’t easily be copied at home. VoucherCodes points to live music, private dining and special menus. For a local, the reason might simply be the Christmas Eve get-together itself. Make sure people know you’ll be open, and what’s on.
7. Get the people side right
- Tips. Tips have to be passed to workers without deductions, other than tax and NI, and allocated fairly, with a written policy available to staff. December is when it matters most.
- Harassment. Since 30 October, employers must take “all reasonable steps” to prevent sexual harassment of their employees. There’s also a new obligation not to permit harassment by third parties, which includes customers. Brief the team before party season on what to do and who to tell.
- Your own staff party. Bear the same duty in mind there too.
After the dust settles
Write down what worked by early January, while it’s fresh: covers, wages against sales by day, waste and stock left over. Next year’s plan starts with this year’s numbers.
Sources (8)
- Pubs set for festive footfall rise as Christmas spend hits £13.3bn, The Morning Advertiser, 22 Oct 2026
- Christmas wrapped: NIQ reveals the secrets of On-Premise festive success, NIQ, 2026
- Suburban pubs urged to stock up for Christmas Eve boom, The Morning Advertiser, 26 Oct 2026
- Holiday entitlement, GOV.UK
- Sickness absences that start before and end on or after 6 April 2026, GOV.UK
- Plan to Make Work Pay and Employment Rights Act: timeline update, GOV.UK, updated 22 Oct 2026
- Low + No 2026 (PDF), KAM, with Lucky Saint, 2026
- Code of practice on fair and transparent distribution of tips, GOV.UK