Pub closures: is the industry on its knees, and what can be done to help?

The numbers

According to the British Beer and Pub Association, 295 pubs shut for good across Britain by the end of September 2026. England accounted for 226, Scotland 64 and Wales five. The BBPA expects about 360 by the end of the year, roughly one a day, costing around 5,000 jobs.

For those of us down here, the worst of it is that the South East had the most closures of any English region, with 42, ahead of the North West on 39.

The year started worse. The BBPA counted 161 closures in the first quarter alone, almost two a day. In 2025 there were 336 net closures, and nearly 2,200 over five years, leaving 43,656 pubs at the end of 2025.

The wider hospitality count from NIQ/CGA tells the same story. Britain had 98,319 licensed premises in September 2026, down 977 on a year earlier, which is nearly 19 a week.

The churn underneath that is the interesting bit. In the three months to September, 2,436 venues closed and 2,191 opened, often in the same buildings. So pub buildings aren’t all going for good. A lot of them are changing hands.

On its knees?

Not quite. The trade is in better health than the closure figures suggest.

September’s Market Watch figures from The Oxford Partnership and Vianet showed draught beer and cider volumes up 1.3% on the year. Occupancy was 66.1%, and the average visit had stretched to 154 minutes. Spend per head rose 3.5% to £26.97, with food up 5%.

So people still want pubs. What they’ve stopped doing is leaving enough money behind after the bills are paid. The BII says only one in four pubs is making a profit in 2026, and that over 40p in every pound spent goes to the government in tax.

The BBPA’s Emma McClarkin put it simply in May. Pubs are “doing a brisk trade, but their profits are wiped out” by tax and costs.

What’s doing the damage

• Business rates. The April 2026 revaluation pushed many pub valuations up sharply. UKHospitality had warned the average pub faced a 76% rise over three years before relief was added.
• Wages and NI. The 2025 Budget measures added an extra £322m of costs for pubs and brewers, according to the BBPA. The National Living Wage goes up again, to £13.21, next April.
• Duty and VAT. Beer duty rises again in February. VAT stays at 20%.
• Nervous customers. Only 37% of hospitality leaders are optimistic about the next 12 months, according to NIQ.

What would help: the policy asks

Some of it has already come. From April 2027, pubs in England get a 35% rates relief and a higher small business threshold.

The planning rules have changed too. Since 17 August, the planning framework treats every pub as a key community facility, not just the last one in the village. Where an owner says a pub isn’t viable, it has to be marketed as a pub for at least 12 months before it can be converted.

The trade is still asking for:

1. A VAT cut for hospitality. This is the joint ask of the BII, UKHospitality and the BBPA.
2. A beer duty freeze and a 30% draught discount. The BBPA says that would support 7,100 jobs.
3. Cheaper employment for under-25s.
4. Permanent rates reform rather than two-year fixes.

UKHospitality’s Allen Simpson made the fair point that planning protection alone won’t do it: “what you can’t do is legislate to force them to stay open if they’re not viable”.

What we can do ourselves

Free-of-tie, you have more levers than most. Use them.

• Check your rateable value. Revaluations get things wrong. If your RV looks out of line with similar pubs nearby, use the VOA’s check and challenge process. Then make sure your council has applied the pub relief, and from April the new threshold.
• Sell the stay, not just the pint. People are staying longer, and food spend is growing faster than drink spend. A simple menu that suits the extra hour, a quiz night or a darts league all turn time into money.
• Make the most of being free of tie. You can buy beer from local and small brewers, who are getting more Small Producer Relief from February. A beer your regulars can’t get at the chain down the road is a reason to come to you. Take a margin you’re comfortable with.
• Reprice before February, not after. Duty rises on 1 February and wages on 1 April. Small, steady price rises are easier on regulars than one big jump.
• Get your energy contract and rota looked at. Find out when your energy deal ends, and match staff hours to the times you’re actually busy.
• Get the community on side. Regulars who know the pub is under pressure will turn up for the quiet Tuesday. They can also back an Asset of Community Value listing if the freehold is ever at risk.

None of it will save a pub on its own. Together, it can make the difference between just about surviving and doing well.

Sources (11)

1. BBPA, “Britain set to lose one pub a day in 2026…”, 12 Oct 2026: https://www.beerandpub.com/news-insights-research/news/britain-set-to-lose-one-pub-a-day-in-2026-at-the-expense-of-over-5000-jobs-as-government-urged-to-deliver-on-promises-for-sector/
2. CAMRA, “One pub a day shuts” (republishes BBPA figures), Oct 2026: https://camra.org.uk/articles/3041
3. BBC News, “British pubs closing at a rate of almost two per day in 2026”, 5 May 2026: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9d355nw7jzo
4. The Caterer, “Nearly 19 British hospitality venues close per week” (NIQ/CGA Hospitality Market Monitor), 30 Oct 2026: https://www.thecaterer.com/news/nearly-19-british-hospitality-venues-close-per-week
5. BII, “UK Pubs Return to Growth as September Draught Volumes Rise 1.3%” (Oxford Partnership/Vianet Market Watch), 16 Oct 2026: https://bii.org/pubs-return-to-growth-in-september/
6. BII, “BII members disappointed as budget fails to deliver”, 28 Oct 2026: https://bii.org/bii-members-disappointed-as-budget-fails-to-deliver/
7. UKHospitality, “Hospitality business rates reform ‘unravelling’”: https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/hospitality-business-rates-reform-unravelling-with-urgent-action-needed/
8. GOV.UK, “8/2026: Details of the Budget package and the multipliers for 2027/2028”: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/82026-details-of-the-budget-package-and-the-multipliers-for-20272028/82026-details-of-the-budget-package-and-the-multipliers-for-20272028
9. The Morning Advertiser, “Gov confirms 12-month test for pub conversions”, 18 Aug 2026: https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2026/08/18/government-confirms-12-month-test-for-pub-conversions/
10. The Morning Advertiser, “BBPA urges beer duty freeze to protect pub jobs”, 24 Sep 2026: https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2026/09/24/bbpa-urges-beer-duty-freeze-to-protect-pub-jobs/
11. Startups.co.uk, “New rules protect pubs from being turned into homes or offices…”, 19 Aug 2026 (Allen Simpson, BBC Radio 4 quote): https://startups.co.uk/news/new-rules-to-stop-pubs-being-turned-into-houses/